The countdown is over: COP29 kicks off

COP29 is finally here. Diplomats and leaders from across the globe are arriving in Baku, Azerbaijan for the annual climate conference. Given the urgent need to scale up finance flows for developing countries, negotiations in Baku are likely to be challenging. To this end, ODI Global will be present to offer technical assistance across our key themes: climate finance, peace and transboundary resilience.

In the following blog, Sarah Colenbrander, Director of the Climate and Sustainability programme, and Rebecca Nadin, Director of the Global Risks and Resilience programme lay out what they'd like to see come out of this year's conference.

- For media enquiries on all things New Collective Quantified Goal, please contact Oliver Moyles [o.moyles@odi.org]

- For media enquiries on climate finance and action in conflict-affected countries, the Global Goal on Adaptation and transboundary climate risks, please contact Charlotte King [c.king@odi.org]

- For media enquiries related to China and supply-chain disruption, please contact i.mangan@odi.org]

The ‘finance COP’ arrives at last
The key focus of COP29 will be the decision around the New Collective Quantified Goal on climate finance, known as the NCQG. (The climate community continues to dazzle with its gift for unwieldy acronyms.)

Deliberations over the new goal kicked off at COP26 in Glasgow, so the NCQG has been at least three years in the making via a series of technical and political dialogues with broad participation – in sharp contrast with the current $100bn goal. Longstanding negotiators will tell you that discussions over the new goal actually began in the lead-up to the 2015 Paris Agreement. So decision time at Baku has been a long time coming.

ODI has been supporting deliberations around the NCQG for the past three years. We have had the privilege of convening negotiators and partnering with experts from all over the world. We've thereby assembled an exceptional body of public evidence on some of the crunch issues, including:

Where do all the different dollar figures come from and what do they include?
How can the NCQG improve access to climate finance for particularly vulnerable countries?
How can the NCQG enhance the transparency of climate finance flows and responsibilities?
How can the NCQG rebuild trust and confidence? By the Imal Initiative for Climate and Development (Morocco).
What lessons can the NCQG take from the new biodiversity finance goal? By Transforma (Colombia)
How can the NCQG address the 'collective aspects' of climate finance? With Zurich Climate Resilience Alliance (UK).
How can the NCQG support local action? By Paripurnam India.
How can the NCQG unlock more adaptation finance as climate impacts become more frequent and severe? With ZeniZeni Sustainable Finance (Malawi, forthcoming)
Stop by our dedicated page on the NCQG to find out more, or read our synthesis blog: What does a good NCQG decision look like? (to be released on the first day of COP29)

A bold new agenda to address climate finance’s ‘conflict blind spot’
Agreeing on a new climate finance goal is top of the agenda at COP29. But increased funding will not be effective as long as climate finance continues failing to reach the world’s most climate-vulnerable.

People living in fragile and conflict-affected countries are some of the world’s most vulnerable to climate impacts, yet in 2022 these countries received only one quarter of the climate finance they need – and far less climate finance than more stable places. As some of our researchers have noted, this shortfall “has devastating implications”: in 2022, a child born in South Sudan was 38 times more likely to be internally displaced by climate-related disasters than a child born in Europe or North America, yet they will receive only a fraction of the support that flows to more stable contexts.

Discussions around this ‘conflict blind spot’ have come a long way since COP26, when ODI hosted the first ever COP event on climate finance and fragility. At COP28 last year, the Climate, Relief, Recovery and Peace Declaration, which was signed by more than 90 governments and 40 organisations (including ODI Global), promised “bolder, collective action” to scale up finance and adaptation action in fragile settings. But we have yet to see an equivalent of the Bridgetown Declaration – which turbocharged discussions around small islands’ climate vulnerability – for conflict-affected countries.

At COP29, we need to see frank discussions about the changes which are needed for funds to scale up investment in fragile contexts – and far more ambition. The Climate, Peace and Transboundary Resilience Pavilion will be a hub for these discussions, hosting some 15 events with a range of governments, banks and aid agencies.

Thinking outside the box on climate adaptation
COP29 will also be critical in moving the dial on climate change adaptation, and we will be keeping a close eye on the ongoing UAE-Belém work programme, which is working to put together indicators to monitor global progress on climate adaptation.

One particularly important – but neglected – dimension of these discussions is transboundary climate risks. Climate change does not respect borders, and in a world of global supply chains and foreign direct investment, climate shocks and related policies in one country can have ripple effects across borders. Policymakers increasingly recognise the importance of taking a transboundary, integrated approach to managing climate risks – yet of the 5000 indicators submitted under the UAE-Belem work programme, only 22 currently reference transboundary climate risks.

What does transboundary management of climate risks involve; what do regional economic communities and unions need to do; and how can we get out of our siloed approach to risk management? These are some of the questions we will be posing at events in the Climate, Peace and Transboundary Resilience Pavilion in the second week of COP29.

Catch up with us in Baku
ODI has a strong presence at COP29! The Global Risks and Resilience Programme will be hosting events across the two weeks in the Blue Zone - find out more here. Please reach out to us if you are there and interested in working together towards ambitious climate action.